| YTD Inventory / Shipment Report In Tons | ||
| 12th Marketing Month | Crop: 2024 | 2024 Crop Wrap-up 1. Export shipments in the 12th marketing month (August 23–September 22) approached 10,000 MT of in-shell equivalent pistachios. During this month, the market trend continued along the pattern observed in the preceding months; in-shell pistachio trade remained sluggish, with slightly adjusted prices but lack of both supply and demand, while pistachio kernel demand stayed robust and continued to drive exports across all destinations. Kernel shipments accounted for almost half of total monthly exports. 2. Annual export shipments reached 202,000 MT of in-shell equivalent pistachios, a 50% increase compared to the previous year. Final "export to opening inventory ratio" stands at 82%, signifying an exceptional marketing year for Iranian pistachio industry. Competitive prices of Iranian pistachios, limited supply from other origins, and rapidly increasing worldwide consumption of Iranian pistachio kernels by the global food industry have been the main drivers for this achievement. 3. Kernels and Green Kernels accounted for almost half of this year’s export shipments (considering closed shells as raw material for kernels), compared with the 4-year average of 37%. Kernel demand continues to be the main driver for Iranian pistachio exports. Industry insiders emphasize that the 2024/25 marketing year witnessed unprecedented growth in global kernel consumption, marking a historic record for Iranian pistachio kernels in terms of both volume and market diversification. This remains the most positive development for the industry amid broader uncertainties. 4. Annual GPPK export volume of over 3,000 MT is exceptional, especially considering domestic restrictions on shipments to the EU earlier in the year. The significant growth in GPPK exports appears to be driven by a larger 2024 harvest of early-picked pistachios and the broader trend of increasing pistachio kernel consumption in the food industry. 5. Amid Iran’s volatile economic conditions, the pistachio trade has become more fractured and reactive — a reflection of both the uncertainty and the adaptability defining the market today. 6. Our previous estimate for Iran’s 2024 crop stood at 200,000 MT of dried in-shell pistachios. However, considering our latest estimate for year-end carry-out of 15,000 MT, we are finalizing the 2024 crop production figure by adjusting our previous estimate to 217,000 MT. 7. U.S. opening prices were recently announced at higher-than-expected levels—a factor that, in theory, should make Iranian pistachios relatively more price-competitive. In practice, however, Iranian in-shell trade remains stagnant; Sharp USD/IRR volatility and ever-increasing export restrictions, have fueled persistent uncertainty among both growers and exporters, effectively locking the market. 2025 Crop Update 1. IPA's official pre-harvest forecast of the 2025 Iranian pistachio crop stands at 240,000 MT of dried in-shell pistachios. The new crop is expected to consist of 55% Long Varieties (30% Ahmad Aqhayi, 15% Akbari, 10% other long) and 45% Round Varieties (30% Round, 15% Jumbo). The Jumbo variety seems to be experiencing an exceptional on-year in most producing areas, while a relative underperformance of Akbari variety is reported due to the heat wave during bloom in April 2025. 2. We are about two-thirds through the harvest; Compared to the previous crop, a lower share of closed-shells is reported, while the percentage of blanks and floaters appear somewhat higher. Higher-than-expected blank percentage may lead to a downward revision of the post-harvest crop estimate. Smaller nut size is reported compared to last year, resulting from irrigation interruptions due to electricity shortages. 3. A smaller amount of early-picked (Kaal) crop (raw material for Green Peeled Pistachio Kernels) seems to have been harvested this year, while prices are noticeably higher than the 2024 crop opening. This dynamic could play a key role in shaping supply and demand trends for the GPPK market over the coming weeks. The definition of ‘Kaal’ has broadened: once limited to early-picked blanched green peeled pistachio kernels intended mainly for the EU, it now spans from premium super-green early-harvests to mid-season harvest with higher yields but less green color, driven by demand from the Middle East and India. The surge in kernel demand has resulted in a growing trend towards earlier harvesting of ripe pistachios in order to produce more closed shells as the raw material for high quality kernels. |
| Carry in from prevoius year | 30,000 | |
| Total Production | 217,000 | |
| Gross Inventory | 247,000 | |
| Domestic Consumption | (30,000) | |
| Export Shipments | (162,000) | |
| Adjustment/losses, Export | (40,000) | |
| Total Consumption | (232,000) | |
| Ending Inventory | 15,000 | |
| Note : addjustment / losses related to shelling and peeling process of kernels and green kernels. | ||
Current Crop Year
Monthly Report.pdf
Annual Report.pdf
