| YTD Inventory / Shipment Report In Tons | ||
| 8th Marketing Month | Crop: 2025 | 1. Export shipments during the 8th marketing month (21 April–21 May) reached 9,000 MT of in-shell equivalent pistachios, a 31% decrease compared to the same period last year (13,000 MT). As anticipated, due to shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the CIS countries accounted for the largest share of monthly shipments, followed by the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, and Türkiye, which mainly serves as a re-export hub. 2. Year-to-date export shipments (Sep. 2025 – May. 2026) capped at 118,000 MT of inshell equivalent pistachios, representing a 26% decrease compared to the previous year. The year-to-date export-to-opening-inventory ratio stands at 49%, compared to 70% for the previous year and 57% four-year average (2021–2024). 3. Demand in the CIS market remains strong and is expected to strengthen more in the coming months, supported by typical seasonal patterns, with higher consumption during the summer. 4. Export of Iranian pistachios to the Far East market has experienced a significant decline, with its share from year-to-date exports falling from 23% last marketing year to 7% this year. Sudden changes to export license regulations in October 2025 significantly limited exports to this market. In addition, strong global demand for pistachio kernels made in-shell shipments to China less competitive. Currently, despite strong demand for kernels and kernel raw materials in China, post-war export limitations have restricted shipments from Iran. At the same time, inventories in China are being depleted, with limited stock remaining. 5. In India’s market, recent increase in pistachio prices, combined with an approximately 13% depreciation of the Indian rupee, are expected to slow consumption growth. 6. Due to war-related disruptions and the suspension of shipments to some of the major kernel markets, such as the UAE, the share of kernel exports (in-shell equivalent) from total exports declined after peaking at 57% in the fifth marketing month, falling to 42% in the sixth month. However, this share has been recovering since the seventh marketing month. Under normal conditions, and given the continued growth of the global kernel market, the share of kernel shipments from total exports over a full marketing year would have surpassed 50% for the first time this year. However, due to the war, we expect this ratio to remain around 47% for the full year, although it would still be higher than the four-year average of 41%. 7. The remaining inventory at the end of the 8th marketing month is estimated at 104,000 MT of in-shell pistachios, which will translate into an unprecedented carry-over for the Iranian pistachio industry at the end of the marketing year. The ongoing day-to-day operational challenges, along with uncertainties arising from the shaky ceasefire, are expected to continue limiting the export flow in the coming months. 8. Based on data presented at the 43rd INC Congress, the upcoming Californian crop, like Iran’s, is expected to face a significant shortfall. Combined 2026 production from Iran and the U.S. is projected at around 500,000 tons, compared with the nearly 1 million tons for 2025. Given that global demand for pistachios remains strong and consumption is growing in many markets, the pistachio market is expected to face supply constraints next year. |
| Carry in from prevoius year | 15,000 | |
| Total Production | 225,000 | |
| Gross Inventory | 240,000 | |
| Domestic Consumption | (18,000) | |
| Export Shipments | (93,000) | |
| Adjustment/losses, Export | (25,000) | |
| Total Consumption | (136,000) | |
| Remaining Inventory | 104,000 | |
| Note : addjustment / losses related to shelling and peeling process of kernels and green kernels. | ||
Current Crop Year
Monthly Report.pdf
Annual Report.pdf
