|Monthly and YTD Inventory / Shipment Report
|1. Year to date (YTD) export shipments from 2015 crop are down by 22% over the first 8 months of previous year. But month eight shipments show an increase of 12% over same month of the previous year. Hence, one can surmise that the carry-over from crop 2015 plus the 2016 harvest would remain below 200,000 tons.
2. Month eight saw 2,393 tons shipped to Re-Export Markets (Dubai and Turkey), more than three times the month previous. The month of Ramadan, celebrated globally, has benefits for Iran’s pistachio exports.
3. Shipments to the Indian Subcontinent and EU 15, both quality oriented markets, have imported a higher share of Iranian pistachio exports so far this marketing year, after being stagnant for a couple of years.
4. One general remark: Iran’s economy has suffered from a cumulative inflation of 50% over the past three years, in addition to seeing its currency (IR Rial) appreciate by 10% against the USD, and by almost 30% against the Euro during the same period. Consequentially, while international pistachio prices have been on the rise, Iranian pistachio producers have faced falling Rial prices for their produce, while being faced with rising costs due to domestic inflation. Iranian pistachio growers can take no more!
Thus, unless there is a substantial depreciation of IR Rial against the USD, Iranian pistachios would attain prices above the Californian equivalent, very soon! This has happened only twice in the past.
8th Marketing Month
|Carry in from previous year
|Total Crop Estimate
|Adjustment/ losses, Domestic
|Adjustment/ losses, Export