| YTD Inventory / Shipment Report In Tons | ||
| 10th Marketing Month | Crop: 2024 | 1. In the 10th marketing month (June 22–July 22), export shipments approached 8,000 MT. High prices and low inventory resulted in limited in-shell shipments, while kernel exports remained strong and widely distributed across destination markets. The CIS market, experiencing its high summer consumption, maintained steady in-shell demand, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total monthly in-shell exports. 2. YTD export shipments reached 183,000 MT of in-shell equivalent pistachios, a 60% increase compared to the previous year. The year-to-date "export to opening inventory ratio" stands at 80%, signifying an exceptional marketing year for Iranian pistachio industry. Competitive prices of Iranian pistachios, limited supply from other origins, and a fast increase in worldwide consumption of Iranian pistachio kernels by the global food industry have been the main reasons for this achievement. With two marketing months remaining and the table showing a scant 20,000 MT of inshell equivalent inventory as of July 22, IPA will likely need to revise its previous estimate of the 2024 crop by year-end. 3. Demand for Iranian pistachio kernels remains strong. With a notable increase in the export share of kernels, Green Peeled Pistachio Kernels (GPPK), and kernel derivatives, the proportion of in-shell and MO/AO shipments in the Iranian pistachio export basket is declining. 4. The post-spring decline in shipments to the Far East reflects saturated pipelines from early-season purchases of both Californian and Iranian pistachios. Chinese buyers appear to be holding off until new-crop supplies from both origins become available at more competitive prices. 5. Domestic and foreign trade impediments have led to the highest percentage of Iranian pistachio shipments to Re-export Markets (UAE & Turkey). During the current marketing year, a third of total exports have been routed to final destinations through re-export hubs. 6. There is seasonal demand from Indian Subcontinent. Summer purchases focus on covering spot market demand and buying up ahead to cover for Diwali festivities. 7. Middle Eastern demand for Iranian pistachio kernels remains strong, despite being in the middle of its low-season. 8. Year-to-date GPPK export volume of over 2,700 MT is exceptional, especially considering domestic restrictions for shipments to the EU in the early part of the year. The significant growth in GPPK export seems to be driven by a larger 2024 harvest of unripe pistachios and the general trend of increasing pistachio kernel consumption in food industry. 9. In Canada, pistachio consumption is growing in new segments, fueled by strong kernel demand in Dubai Chocolate craze, traditional sweets and ice cream—particularly within Middle Eastern immigrant communities and tourism industry. Reduced U.S. supply has created new opportunities for Iranian kernels, while European supply chain disruptions have pushed local producers to rely even more on imported raw pistachios. 10. While the in-shell market for Iranian pistachios may experience ups and downs due to IRR exchange rate volatility, no significant price fluctuation is expected prior to the new crop availability. As this season draws to a close, the global in-shell pistachio market remains quiet, characterized by limited new shipments mostly due to high volume early-season contract deliveries and large 2025 crop forecast both in the US and Iran. 2025 New Crop 1. IPA's official pre-harvest forecast of the 2025 Iranian pistachio crop stands at 240,000 MT of dried in-shell pistachios. The new crop is expected to consist of 55% Long Varieties (30% Ahmad Aqhayi, 15% Akbari, 10% other long) and 45% Round Varieties (30% Round, 15% Jumbo). The Jumbo variety seems to be experiencing an exceptional on-year in most producing areas, while a relative underperformance of Akbari variety is expected caused by the heat wave during bloom in April. 2. Looking ahead, harvest of the new crop is expected to start sooner than normal. The quality of crop 2025 seems to be better than average, with bigger nut size and lower percentage of closed‐shell compared to last year. |
| Carry in from prevoius year | 30,000 | |
| Total Production | 200,000 | |
| Gross Inventory | 230,000 | |
| Domestic Consumption | (27,000) | |
| Export Shipments | (148,000) | |
| Adjustment/losses, Export | (35,000) | |
| Total Consumption | (210,000) | |
| Ending Inventory | 20,000 | |
| Note : addjustment / losses related to shelling and peeling process of kernels and green kernels. | ||
| YTD Inventory / Shipment Report In Tons | ||
| 10th Marketing Month | Crop: 2024 | 1. In the 10th marketing month (June 22–July 22), export shipments approached 8,000 MT. High prices and low inventory resulted in limited in-shell shipments, while kernel exports remained strong and widely distributed across destination markets. The CIS market, experiencing its high summer consumption, maintained steady in-shell demand, accounting for nearly two-thirds of total monthly in-shell exports. 2. YTD export shipments reached 183,000 MT of in-shell equivalent pistachios, a 60% increase compared to the previous year. The year-to-date "export to opening inventory ratio" stands at 80%, signifying an exceptional marketing year for Iranian pistachio industry. Competitive prices of Iranian pistachios, limited supply from other origins, and a fast increase in worldwide consumption of Iranian pistachio kernels by the global food industry have been the main reasons for this achievement. With two marketing months remaining and the table showing a scant 20,000 MT of inshell equivalent inventory as of July 22, IPA will likely need to revise its previous estimate of the 2024 crop by year-end. 3. Demand for Iranian pistachio kernels remains strong. With a notable increase in the export share of kernels, Green Peeled Pistachio Kernels (GPPK), and kernel derivatives, the proportion of in-shell and MO/AO shipments in the Iranian pistachio export basket is declining. 4. The post-spring decline in shipments to the Far East reflects saturated pipelines from early-season purchases of both Californian and Iranian pistachios. Chinese buyers appear to be holding off until new-crop supplies from both origins become available at more competitive prices. 5. Domestic and foreign trade impediments have led to the highest percentage of Iranian pistachio shipments to Re-export Markets (UAE & Turkey). During the current marketing year, a third of total exports have been routed to final destinations through re-export hubs. 6. There is seasonal demand from Indian Subcontinent. Summer purchases focus on covering spot market demand and buying up ahead to cover for Diwali festivities. 7. Middle Eastern demand for Iranian pistachio kernels remains strong, despite being in the middle of its low-season. 8. Year-to-date GPPK export volume of over 2,700 MT is exceptional, especially considering domestic restrictions for shipments to the EU in the early part of the year. The significant growth in GPPK export seems to be driven by a larger 2024 harvest of unripe pistachios and the general trend of increasing pistachio kernel consumption in food industry. 9. In Canada, pistachio consumption is growing in new segments, fueled by strong kernel demand in Dubai Chocolate craze, traditional sweets and ice cream—particularly within Middle Eastern immigrant communities and tourism industry. Reduced U.S. supply has created new opportunities for Iranian kernels, while European supply chain disruptions have pushed local producers to rely even more on imported raw pistachios. 10. While the in-shell market for Iranian pistachios may experience ups and downs due to IRR exchange rate volatility, no significant price fluctuation is expected prior to the new crop availability. As this season draws to a close, the global in-shell pistachio market remains quiet, characterized by limited new shipments mostly due to high volume early-season contract deliveries and large 2025 crop forecast both in the US and Iran. 2025 New Crop 1. IPA's official pre-harvest forecast of the 2025 Iranian pistachio crop stands at 240,000 MT of dried in-shell pistachios. The new crop is expected to consist of 55% Long Varieties (30% Ahmad Aqhayi, 15% Akbari, 10% other long) and 45% Round Varieties (30% Round, 15% Jumbo). The Jumbo variety seems to be experiencing an exceptional on-year in most producing areas, while a relative underperformance of Akbari variety is expected caused by the heat wave during bloom in April. 2. Looking ahead, harvest of the new crop is expected to start sooner than normal. The quality of crop 2025 seems to be better than average, with bigger nut size and lower percentage of closed‐shell compared to last year. |
| Carry in from prevoius year | 30,000 | |
| Total Production | 200,000 | |
| Gross Inventory | 230,000 | |
| Domestic Consumption | (27,000) | |
| Export Shipments | (148,000) | |
| Adjustment/losses, Export | (35,000) | |
| Total Consumption | (210,000) | |
| Ending Inventory | 20,000 | |
| Note : addjustment / losses related to shelling and peeling process of kernels and green kernels. | ||